Jim and Ray welcome McKinsey & Company’s Global Director of Geopolitics Ziad Haider to discuss how businesses are navigating the evolving risks and opportunities of today’s Indo-Pacific business environment. Ziad asserts that the region is the engine of the global economy which is both economically vibrant but also highly volatile.

Ziad discusses the role of India and Southeast Asia as rising global economic power, and of course, the increasingly complex challenge of operating in China amidst its growing regulatory and geopolitical hazards. He emphasizes the need for companies to be prepared to adapt as circumstances can change quickly, as evidenced by recent supply chains disruptions and black-swan events such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Jim and Ray welcome BowerGroupAsia’s Managing Director for Indonesia Doug Ramage to look at the country’s economic and geopolitical position as it moves on from a decade under President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo to new President Prabowo Subianto. They consider Indonesia’s position as a rising power with a $1 trillion economy, a G20 membership and leadership position within the Association of Southeast Asian (ASEAN) nations.

Doug credits the Jokowi presidency for championing a stable political and investment climate, and explains why he believes that Prabowo is seeking continuity while also promoting social development.

He explains that Prabowo will face a rising imperative to balance Jakarta’s relationships with Washington DC and Beijing in the face of rising great-power competition. He will seek to maintain Indonesia’s strong regional position and continue to promote ASEAN-centrality, while also continuing to promote its role as a leader in the Muslim world.

Doug unpacks the strains created by the twin impulses toward economic growth and trade protectionism, and how these may impact the former defense minister’s military modernization plans and the slow-moving effort to relocate the capital city.

Jim and Ray welcome Suzanne Vares-Lum, retired U.S. Army Major General, outgoing President of the East-West Center and Director-designate of the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies. Together they explore the geopolitical significance of the geographically vast but sparsely populated Pacific Islands region.

They discuss how these small island nations have found themselves in the midst of the great-power competition between the U.S. and China, while many have also become unlikely players in the cross-strait tensions between Taiwan and China. At the same time, the concerns that preoccupy these nations at international gatherings such as the Pacific Islands Forum include illegal fishing and climate change.

Suzy explains how the U.S. has been renewing its commitment to many of these countries through education and leadership programs, as well as opening new embassies and funding infrastructure projects.

To close, Ray tells the story of when he dispatched a special forces officer to rescue a stuffed animal.

In this "emergency" episode, Ray and Jim welcome retired South Korean Lieutenant General Chun In-Bum back to help explain the extraordinary events of December 3rd–President Yoon Suk Yul’s shocking declaration of martial law, its unanimous rejection by the parliament, and its subsequent repeal by Yoon.

General Chun talks about the ethical and legal dilemma faced by South Korean military personnel, crediting their professionalism and restraint for averting violence. He also discusses South Korea’s history with martial law and how the ever-present threat of North Korean aggression colors that landscape.

The conversation then turns to what is likely to happen next to President Yoon and his administration, and how a potential presidential succession might unfold should he be impeached or resign from office.

General Chun laments the impact Yoon’s actions and their aftermath is likely to have on South Korea’s geopolitical situation, with special emphasis on how it will affect recent positive trends with Japan relations during Yoon’s tenure.

To close, Jim and Ray compare this experience with others they’ve encountered during their long diplomatic and military careers, and also discuss how authoritarian regimes are likely to exploit the chaos in Seoul.

Ray and Jim welcome Victor Chin, the official representative of Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party, to Taiwan’s political landscape. They discuss how the KMT evolved from the flight with Chiang Kai-shek to Taiwan at end of the Chinese Civil War; through decades of unchallenged KMT rule over the island; its transition to a multiparty democracy; through to today as its primary opposition party to the ascendant Democratic People’s Party (DPP).

They turn to Taiwan’s strategic geographic location, the building military threat from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the need for Taiwan to prepare its entire society for hostilities, and the crucial role the U.S. plays in ensuring its security.

Victor explains why the KMT emphasizes its support for the “1992 Consensus” regarding “One China” and its ambiguous interpretation. He explains the difference in how the KMT looks at cross-strait relations, emphasizing dialogue over confrontation to manage tensions until democracy can be the force that unifies China.

This conservative approach has earned the KMT the reputation of being Beijing’s preferred party, but Victor insists it remains Taiwan’s original and staunch bastion against communism.

To close, Jim’s “There I was” story leads him and Ray into a discussion about the promises of authoritarianism versus democracy, which Churchill described as “the worst form of government except for everything else that’s been tried.”

Ray and Jim welcome AEI senior fellow Zack Cooper to the podcast to discuss China's increasingly aggressive behavior, and what the U.S. and its allies need to do in response. They focus on the question of how deterrence strategies need to evolve and adapt to the threats, whether they be nuclear, conventional military, or across the spectrum of malign gray-zone activities. They discuss the specific need to deter a military move against Taiwan.

The discussion turns to the topic of extended nuclear deterrence, and whether a perceived U.S. inability or unwillingness to back up its security guarantees might lead its allies in the region to pursue their own nuclear weapons programs and lead to a breakdown of the non-proliferation regime.

Zack also covers the recent U.S. policy of “integrated deterrence” and whether it can be effective, as well as recent discussion about an “Asian NATO” and whether it has a future.

Ray and Jim explore the implications of a Trump 2.0 administration for the Philippines with prominent Filipino columnist, podcaster and author of the 2020 book, The Indo-Pacific: Trump, China, and the New Struggle for Global Mastery. Richard Heydarian discusses the historical context of US-Philippines relations, the fluidity of ASEAN perspectives on China, and the importance of strategic autonomy for Southeast Asian nations.

The dialogue compares the policies of U.S. administrations through recent decades, emphasizing the need for clarity and continuity in interpreting the 1951 US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty and other security cooperation arrangements.

The discussion drills down on the potential impact of Trump-imposed tariffs on Philippine economic interests, before turning to the broader geopolitical and economic landscape across Southeast Asia.

Richard also gives his opinions on the effectiveness of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the potential for minilateralism to overcome its limitations.

The hosts ask Richard to give advice about how Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. can maximize his impact with President Trump, as well as his advice on what makes a successful podcast.

Finally, Ray tells Jim about his recent experience at the Manila Dialogue on the South China Sea, where he created a buzz by describing China’s activities in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone as akin to a “maritime occupation” by a “hostile imperial power”.

Ray and Jim talk to author and geopolitical analyst James Crabtree about India’s policy of strategic ambiguity, its evolving but complicated relationship to the other “Quad” countries (the U.S., Australia and Japan), and its enigmatic relations with Russia and China.

They also review India's ongoing military modernization efforts, as well as the challenges of doing business in India with its complex web of protectionism, regulations and infrastructure issues.

Crabtree unpacks the rhetoric of India’s “Act East” policy of prioritizing Southeast Asia, as opposed to its evident interest in developing relations with wealthier Western economies. He also explains the implications of its inclusion in the “BRICS” grouping with Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa, together with a growing number of emerging Global South partners.