Timestamps

(00:36) Inflation data and MPC expectations

(07:45) GDP growth

(11:00) Scottish Budget Report developments

(20:08) Other fiscal news in 2025

(22:01) Allison and Mairi discuss air quality research

(26:20) Hannah and Mairi discuss the Scottish Child Payment and foodbank usage

(31:45) Ben and Mairi discuss Economic Futures

(35:40) Live! Scottish GDP data comes out during the podcast

PARTICIPANTS

Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Emma Congreve, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

TIME STAMPS

(0:21) Summary of main announcements
(1:37) Mitigation of the two-child limit
(3:42) What has happened with the budget for housing?
(5:15) Hospitality relief - similar to relief in England & Wales?
(8:30) Implications of omitting employer NICs from forecasts on public sector pay
(13:43) Income tax and what the SFC forecasts tell us about future years
(19:22) Further analysis - what to look out for

FAI economist Hannah Randolph is joined by Luke Michaelides and Phil Gooding from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Consumer Prices team to talk about inflation statistics. We cover what measures of inflation are produced by ONS, how they differ, and recent developments in methodology and the data underlying the statistics. We end by discussing how inflation rates impact households and businesses.

Participants

Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Luke Michaelides, Branch Head, Consumer Prices Development and Subgroup Production, ONS

Phil Gooding, Statistician, Consumer Prices Inflation, ONS

Time stamps

(1:00) What are the different measures of inflation produced by ONS? How do they differ?

(2:25) What are the Household Costs Indices and what do they say about how inflation affects different groups?

(5:25) What types of data are used to produce these inflation measures?

(7:20) How have the methods of collecting data for and calculating inflation changed?

(10:20) What do changes in the inflation rate mean for households and businesses? What should people keep in mind when they hear about inflation on the news?

(0:00) - Introducing the GEMINOA project - background and context

(1:16) - Key findings:

• Glasgow's 46% emissions reduction
• National grid decarbonisation impact
• Sector-by-sector breakdown

(3:32) - Local policy measurement challenges:

(7:30) - Economic implications:

(11:00) - Future outlook:

• GEMINOA project developments
• Policy implications
• Upcoming research

In our 100th podcast episode, FAI Director Mairi Spowage and Deputy Director João Sousa join economist Hannah Randolph to discuss what was announced in the UK budget statement and how it will affect Scotland. We also talk about whether OBR publications alongside the budget shed more light on the budgetary "black hole" left by the previous government, and whether or not this budget signals a significant change in UK fiscal policy.

Participants

Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Time stamps

(0:20) How will the tax decisions taken in yesterday's budget affect people in Scotland?

(9:10) How might the announcements yesterday influence the Scottish budget in December?

(17:30) What has changed about the fiscal rules and what impact has it had?

(29:50) Does this budget signal a change in the direction of UK fiscal policy?

Deputy Director João Sousa joins FAI economist Hannah Randolph to discuss our expectations for the budget statement on Wednesday as well as what we can learn from past chancellors' first budgets and the role of the OBR in the budget process.

To read more about past chancellors' first budgets, check out the details here: https://fraserofallander.org/publications/uk-budget-preview-3-first-budgets-of-post-war-chancellors/

Participants

Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Time stamps

(0:20) What do other chancellors' first budgets tell us about what to expect in Rachel Reeves' first budget statement?

(6:00) What historical budgets happened in similar conditions to the present and what can we learn from them?

(10:24) How has the role of the OBR in the budget process changed over time?

(17:20) What do we expect in the budget statement on Wednesday?

In this episode, Brodie Gillan is joined by Chirsty McFadyen, and Laura Robertson, who is a Research Manager at the Poverty Alliance. Brodie, Chirsty, and Laura discuss the Serving the Future project in the context of Challenge Poverty Week.

Serving the Future is a three-year action research project working with hospitality employers and workers funded by the Robertson Trust. The project is seeking to understand, reduce and prevent in-work poverty and identify changes that could be made within the hospitality sector.

You can find out more about Serving the Future here: https://www.servingthefuture.scot/

You can learn more about the Poverty Alliance & Challenge Poverty Week here: https://www.povertyalliance.org/

Participants

Brodie Gillan, Assistant Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Chirsty McFadyen, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Laura Robertson, Research Manager, Poverty Alliance

Timestamps

(00:47) What is Serving the Future?
(03:06) What is Challenge Poverty Week and how does it relate to Serving the Future?
(05:20) Why did we focus on the hospitality sector for this project?
(07:20) What are the main challenges facing low-paid workers in the hospitality sector?
(15:55) What conversations have we had with hospitality employers throughout the project?
(22:31) What can listeners learn about in-work poverty?
(27:02) What’s next for Serving the Future?

(00:35) Mairi discusses the headlines from our commentary publication, covering the main indicators of economic conditions

(03:55) Douglas reflects on whether this chimes with the experience he is having with clients

(07:12) Mairi, Joao and Douglas discuss the latest data on Scottish Income Tax, and our old friend fiscal drag

(15:03) Mairi and Joao discuss our analysis of fiscal black holes

(21:33) We all speculate about the UK Budget on 30th October, focussing on the implications if capital gains tax features in the changes the Chancellor is likely to make.

(30:30) Mairi discusses some of our analysis on the Scottish Public sector.