The market is navigating a period of heightened uncertainty, but key insights from this latest discussion will shed light on what's driving sentiment and expectations.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, analyze the recent Fed meeting, market reactions, and what’s coming for 2025.

They explore the context of inflation fears, shifts in economic projections, and the broader implications of monetary policy, offering perspectives on why a recession might not be imminent despite challenges.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The Federal Reserve’s hawkish shift and its impact on market sentiment, including fears of prolonged rate cuts and inflation risks
• Historical market trends, including the significance of the Santa Claus rally and potential warning signs for the coming year
• How inflation metrics like shelter and financial services charges influence overall inflation perceptions and the Fed’s response
• Strong economic indicators such as income growth outpacing inflation and their role in sustaining consumer spending and economic resilience
• The political and economic uncertainties shaping 2025, including rate cuts, tax policies, and market growth potential
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Inflation concerns are widespread, but are they justified?

Economic trends suggest that the narrative of persistently high inflation may be overblown.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, analyze the nuances of current inflation data and its implications for investors and the broader economy.

They discuss why inflation is less of a concern than widely believed, explore consumer strength, and offer insights into the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.

Ryan and Sonu talk about:

• The recent market trends, including stock movements, Santa Claus rallies, and why market sentiment remains resilient despite fluctuations
• The misconceptions surrounding "sticky" inflation, emphasizing the lagging impact of shelter and auto insurance data
• The Federal Reserve's policy decisions, including upcoming rate cuts and their implications for the market
• The resilience of the U.S. consumer, supported by strong balance sheets, rising disposable income, and robust retail sales growth
• China's economic shifts, including its dominance in automobile manufacturing and its global impact on manufacturing trends and oil demand
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Market sentiment is shifting, and the conversation is abuzz with optimism.

What drives these changes, and how should investors prepare for potential volatility ahead?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, unveil the surprising rally in the market, factors influencing the shift in sentiment, and the prospects for the coming year. They explore trends in employment, the economy, and the impact of monetary policy changes on investors' strategies.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The market's transition from bearish to bullish sentiment after consecutive strong years of returns, emphasizing shifting sentiment among prominent analysts
• The labor market's mixed signals, including steady job creation, rising unemployment rates, and slowing hiring trends
• Potential implications of Federal Reserve rate cuts and the broader economic impact, including risks of prolonged pauses in cuts
• The resurgence of small-cap stocks and their potential to outperform amid favorable economic growth expectations
• Global economic risks, including political instability in key regions and their potential impact on the U.S. dollar and broader markets.
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Are today’s markets walking a tightrope?

Balancing optimism with caution, Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, is joined by Barry Gilbert, VP of Wealth Management, to tackle three key market concerns in this thought-provoking episode of Facts vs. Feelings.

They examine the complexities of policy risks, tariffs, and valuations, offering insights to help investors navigate today’s market uncertainties.

This conversation delivers actionable strategies to help you manage uncertainty, stay diversified, and make sense of today’s market challenges. Whether navigating fiscal and monetary policy decisions, understanding global trends, or debating valuations, this conversation has something for every investor.

Key Highlights:

• Policy Risks: Federal Reserve rate decisions remain a wildcard, potentially impacting housing, business investments, and broader economic growth
• Trade and Tariffs: Tariff rhetoric and policy shifts could nudge inflation and alter market sentiment—but are they long-term threats or one-time adjustments
• Stock Valuations: U.S. markets continue trading at high valuations (e.g., 22x forward PE), raising questions about sustainability and investor sentiment
• Global Perspectives: Growth stories in India and Japan contrast with U.S. workforce trends, offering a broader view of opportunities and challenges
• Why It Matters: Understanding these risks could help investors stay grounded and focused on long-term goals despite short-term noise
• And much more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
• Reasons to Be Thankful (Ep. 111)

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Connect with Barry Gilbert:

• LinkedIn: Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA
• Carson Wealth

Surprising economic growth, falling inflation, and financial wins—what’s not to be thankful for?

On this gratitude-filled episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, reflect on the moments, milestones, and market trends that make this year one to celebrate. Guest Barry Gilbert, VP of Wealth Management, joins to spotlight the U.S. economy’s surprising resilience.

This release explores the drivers of today’s strong markets and their year-end outlook, from economic growth and moderating inflation to personal triumphs and professional gratitude. The hosts also share practical strategies for staying diversified and grounded in fundamentals while embracing gratitude as a mindset for success.

Key Highlights:

• Economic Resilience: GDP growth outpaces expectations at 2.8–2.9%, driven by productivity gains and entrepreneurship
• Inflation Trends: Thanksgiving dinner costs drop 5% year-over-year, reflecting gradual inflation moderation
• Stock Market Rally: The S&P 500 gains ~20% for the second year, with financials leading sector growth
• Year-End Momentum: December’s historical strength and profit margins show continued market optimism
• Investment Insights: Diversify portfolios and focus on earnings fundamentals to prepare for long-term growth
• And much more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Connect with Barry Gilbert:

• LinkedIn: Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA
• Carson Wealth

With interest rates climbing to historic highs, is the economy teetering on the brink—or are opportunities waiting in the wings?

This week on Facts vs. Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, assess the far-reaching effects of rising rates on the economy and markets.

Ryan and Sonu examine how these trends reshape investment opportunities, from skyrocketing mortgage rates—eroding housing affordability—to sector rotations in the S&P 500. They reveal why inflation might be cooling faster than official data suggests, the surprising resilience of consumer strength, and whether the Fed’s cautious “wait-and-see” approach hints at a future policy shift.

Tune in as the duo also explores market dynamics, uncovers the lessons of the 1995 Greenspan era, and discusses how high productivity could provide a unique opportunity for rate cuts without economic stagnation!

Key Highlights:

• Interest Rate Dynamics: Higher mortgage rates (7–8%) squeeze affordability, but construction jobs remain surprisingly steady
• Sector Performance: Financials, energy, and industrials shine as tech and healthcare face setbacks
• Inflation Trends: Real-time data suggests cooling inflation and calming food and grocery prices
• Fed’s Position: Powell’s cautious “wait-and-see” strategy faces criticism for focusing on outdated inflation metrics
• Geopolitical Risks: A strong dollar and global conflicts pressure markets, making diversification essential
• Productivity Gains: High productivity offers hope for wage growth without spiking inflation
• Investment Outlook: Stay diversified and monitor high-growth tech and renewable energy opportunities
• And much more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

As the post-election market rally gains momentum, how can investors position themselves for what’s next?

This week on Facts vs. Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, assess the economic implications of recent election results and a renewed Trump administration.

From anticipated Republican policy shifts—like potential tax cuts, deregulation, and deficit spending—to a bullish outlook for small-cap stocks, Ryan and Sonu examine how these strategies may shape market sentiment in the months ahead. They discuss the impact of a strong dollar on international equities, why gold’s recent dip could offer buying opportunities, and whether bond yields might stabilize following recent increases.

So, tune in as they explore market patterns, highlighting how post-election years often deliver solid performance and explore how non-traditional media, like podcasts, are increasingly shaping election sentiment.

Key Highlights:

• Market Rally: Optimism from GOP policies drives small-cap growth post-election
• Tax and Fiscal Policy: Upcoming tax cuts and spending could spark growth while balancing inflation
• Investment Outlook: Bullish on small caps; bond yields may stabilize
• Gold & Dollar Dynamics: Strong dollar pressures international stocks; gold may be a buying opportunity
• Election Trends: Historically, markets gain momentum after election years
• Shifting Media: Podcasts and new media reshape election sentiment
• And much more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

As economic data shows resilience and market expectations shift, how can investors navigate these mixed signals?

This week on Facts vs. Feelings, Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research, and Skanda Amarnath, Executive Director at Employ America, join hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, to assess the economy's current strength and potential headwinds.

From surprising 3% GDP growth and possible consumer spending slowdowns to pressures in the housing market driven by high mortgage rates, they discuss why current market optimism might be short-lived. Neil and Skanda also explore how inflation trends, influenced by wage growth and energy prices, could shape future economic stability.

So, tune in as they further explore geopolitical risks, such as fiscal policy changes, and their implications for investors as the 2024 election approaches—offering strategies to stay informed and balanced in uncertain times!

Key Highlights:

• Economic Growth Outlook: The strong 3% GDP growth might not last, with possible Q4 slowdowns stemming from decreased consumer and equipment spending
• Consumer Spending Concerns: Challenges from stagnant real income growth and high mortgage rates could weigh on spending
• Federal Reserve Strategy: A cautious approach to rate cuts, guided by labor cost data, points to measured future actions
• Inflation and Prices: While lower energy costs help curb inflation, core issues persist amidst moderated wage growth
• Market Enthusiasm: Is optimism justified, or are markets overlooking key risks?
• Labor Market Shifts: Slowing job growth may impact consumer-driven economic momentum
• Political Uncertainty: Upcoming fiscal and policy changes may inject volatility into market forecasts and investment strategies
• And much more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Connect with Neil Dutta:

• LinkedIn: Neil Dutta
• Renaissance Macro Research

Connect with Skanda Amarnath:

• Twitter: Skanda Amarnath
• Employ America