🎯 In this episode of The Bettor Thinking Podcast, we sit down with Ed Miller, a former Microsoft engineer turned professional gambler who's been crushing betting markets since 2003. From the poker boom to today's sports betting landscape, Ed breaks down where the real edges exist in modern betting markets.

🔑 Key Topics: • Why same-game parlays and live betting markets are still beatable • How correlation creates exploitable opportunities • The truth about "top-down" betting approaches • Real examples of profitable betting strategies • The evolution of betting markets from poker to sports betting

📚 Ed Miller's Must-Read Books: "The Logic of Sports Betting" "Interception: Modern Sports Betting"

🔗 Follow Ed Miller: Twitter: @EdMillerPoker

🎙️ Follow The Bettor Thinking Podcast: Twitter:@theSharpApp Instagram:@statsational Website: bettorthinkingpod.com

#SportsBetting #GamblingTips #BettingStrategy #SportsBettingAdvice #BettingEducation

The episode features Aaron Brown, a former professional gambler turned Wall Street quant trader and risk manager at AQR Capital Management. The conversation traces his fascinating journey from a 14-year-old poker player in Seattle to becoming a prominent figure in financial risk management.

Key Points Discussed:

1. Early Years:

• Started reading financial pages and horse racing data as a child
• Began playing poker at age 14 in Seattle taverns
• Used gambling to help pay for his Harvard education

1. Professional Gambling:

• Developed from local games to high-stakes private games
• Played with influential people including politicians, businessmen, and academics
• Emphasized the importance of social skills in professional gambling
• Discussed the evolution of poker from underground games to mainstream entertainment

1. Sports Betting:

• Explained the transformation of sports betting from mob-controlled to modern markets
• Discussed quantitative approaches to sports betting
• Emphasized the importance of getting bets down early and providing valuable information to bookmakers

1. Wall Street Career:

• Transitioned from gambling to quantitative trading in the 1980s
• Detailed the evolution of mathematical approaches on Wall Street
• Explained the transition from floor trading to quantitative analysis
• Discussed his role in mortgage-backed securities and derivatives

1. Risk Management Principles:

• Emphasized the importance of proper bet sizing
• Discussed Kelly Criterion and its applications
• Highlighted common mistakes in trading and betting
• Stressed the importance of emotional control in decision-making

  Books:

  • "The Poker Face of Wall Street" (2006) - https://www.amazon.com/Poker-Face-Wall-Street/dp/0470127317
  • "Red-Blooded Risk: The Secret History of Wall Street" (2011) - https://www.amazon.com/Red-Blooded-Risk-Secret-History-Street/dp/1118043863
  • "Financial Risk Management For Dummies" (2015) - https://www.amazon.com/Financial-Risk-Management-Dummies-Brown/dp/1119082200
  • "A World of Chance: Betting on Religion, Games, Wall Street" (co-authored with Reuven and Gabrielle Brenner) (2008) - https://www.amazon.com/World-Chance-Betting-Religion-Street/dp/0521884667

  Website:

  • Personal Website: http://www.eraider.com

  Professional Background:

  • Former Chief Risk Manager at AQR Capital Management
  • Columnist for Wilmott and Quantum magazines
  • Editorial Board member of the Global Association of Risk Professionals
  • Member of the National Book Critics Circle
  • Harvard University (SB in Applied Mathematics)
  • University of Chicago (MBA in Finance and Statistics)

  You can also find his articles and commentary on:

  • RealClearMarkets: https://www.realclearmarkets.com/authors/aaron_brown/
  • Goodreads Author Page: https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/229051.Aaron_Brown