Superforecasting
The Art and Science of Prediction
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Superforecasting
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Narrated by:
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Joel Richards
About this listen
From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people - including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer - who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters".
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future - whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life - and is destined to become a modern classic.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying reference material will be available in your My Library section along with the audio.
©2015 Philip Tetlock Consulting, Inc., and Connaught Street, Inc. (P)2015 Audible, Inc.Listeners also enjoyed...
What listeners say about Superforecasting
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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Performance2 out of 5 stars
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Story5 out of 5 stars
- Corey Johnson
- 23-03-19
Good book, tepid narration
Great book with respect to evidence based forecasting, but the narrator was very robotic. I would have enjoyed some energy in his delivery. I would have been far more engaged. However, his explanation of the graphs which obviously cannot be seen are very well done.
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1 person found this helpful
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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Performance5 out of 5 stars
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- SAN
- 21-07-21
Very well explained - just loved it
Very well explained - just loved it
Guidelines: One can find what one is looking for.
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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- Derek
- 21-09-16
Should be mandatory reading in every school
Narrator was excellent, perfect reading.
This book is an excellent analysis of the dangers of pride in our forecasts and the benefits of humility coupled with a desire to perform better.
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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Performance4 out of 5 stars
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- Flavia Richardson
- 10-02-16
book presents a new way of thinking
I enjoyed the audiobook. very easy to grasp the key points on how to reach good judgement. how our approach to forecasting and analysis needs to change to include more aggregation and more variables.
gives insight on the good judgement Project and the outcomes.
few key messages for professionals:
1) consult across sectors
2) aggregate
3) use a base score
4) incrementally improve forecasts and prediction and regularly review works
5) test the validity of data
6) don't fall for pundits :)
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40 people found this helpful
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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Performance5 out of 5 stars
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- Amazon Customer
- 14-04-21
Thought-provoking and compelling stuff
An overview of a variety of success factors for a cohort of “superforecasters” - people who were able to effectively predict events in the near-to-medium future.
Often leading with clear examples, then explaining how/why they are relevant, I believed this book could help anyone improve their foresight to some extent, and possibly help make superforecasters of many!
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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- Prime Addict
- 20-07-20
Thought provoking
Am going to read Taleb after this. I'm no expert in this field but this is definitely thought provoking and it's made me want to find out more to fully understand the limitations of this approach to forecasting...
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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- Anonymous User
- 09-11-20
Great read to widen ur view
Great read to widen ur view, but doesnt give the best advise in system but I guess its becuase this is not specified into a curtain area making it impossible to do so
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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- tomfada
- 21-11-22
Super interesting, hope for the world.
A must read after Kahneman’s Thinking Fast and Slow. A rational and scientific look at where we are in the science of forecasting, as well as human cognition. Lessons to be learned.
I did not like the voice quality, he sounds like he’s in a very small box and it grates on the ear. I’d prefer if he did not attempt foreign accents either. They’re pointless, badly executed and racist.
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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- Cat
- 27-12-15
Excellent!
Firstly, most comfortable with the narration.
I thoroughly enjoyed this book. Hats off as the story weaved its way through so many facets of forecasting and what influences and differentiates forecasters from 'super forecasters'.
Fascinating, thought inspiring, I found myself gleefully immersed and entertained in and of a World I had given little prior thought to.
Recommended.
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4 people found this helpful
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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- OxS
- 24-09-16
Listening again to become a superforcaster
I really like the concept. It is doable. I really enjoyed the book, although the author could've got to the point a lot quicker. You wouldn't regret listening to this brilliant audio book.
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1 person found this helpful